Black Swans / Rediculous Futures

    Year
    2013
    Title
    Black Swans / Rediculous Futures
    Topic(s)
    forecasting, probability
    Author(s)

    Juha Saukkonen
    JAMK Univ. of Applied Sciences, Finland
    juha.saukkonen at jamk.fi

    Summary
    1. Discuss Jim Dator’s 2nd Law of Futures:Any useful statement about the future should seem ridiculous.
    2. Students brainstorm ridiculous ideas,and business opportunities based on them.(Younger students often have more trouble.)
    3. Leads to discussions about “impossible” events e.g. Nuclear reactor failures, Lehman Bros failure

    Created
    Wed May 29, 2013 11:02:45 EDT
    LastModif
    Wed May 29, 2013 11:02:45 EDT

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    The original document is available at http://kussmaul.org/eship/item44